This article will explain how to generate a film forecast for an upcoming movie release.
Cinema Intelligence will generate a forecast for all theatres for the complete lifetime of the movie in the theatrical environment.
Week-by-week information at a theatre level as well as a complete circuit overview is available.
To forecast a movie, click on a movie title in the Coming Soon page, which will open the film forecasting section.
Check that the release date is correct and also review all movie details, such as Genre and Distributor, as they need to be correct for correct forecasting.
1. Release information
The Film Overview page contains the movie information that has been imported. Take the time to familiarize yourself with the movie you are about to forecast.
Click on the keywords label to review and edit the movie keywords information. By default the following keywords would have been added: "Movie title", "Movie title trailer", "Movie title film". You can delete a key word by clicking on the adjacent x icon and you can also type in a new keywords.
It is important to pick the right keywords for your new release. To understand how to pick the right keyword and why it is important, please see this Section: How to pick the right keywords for film forecasting? (Coming Soon)
2. Select and review a Similar Title
The first step in forecasting is selecting a similar title and is critical for creating correct forecasts. You can add 1-3 similar titles.
To select a similar title:
Enter a title, actor or genre in the search bar.
Select Preview to see actual results and other release data of the similar title in your circuit.
Press Select when satisfied with your choice.
You can select up to 3 similar titles.
3. Set a Performance Multiplier and get forecast
After selecting a comparable title, you have to select a performance multiplier (the predicted comparison between the new release and the similar title where "1" is equal, >1 is higher and <1 is lower than the similar title).
The next step is to set the actual performance multiplier that will be used for this title via the slider. Many of Cinema Intelligence's users are experts in predicting attendance in their own circuits and therefore users can either use the suggested performance multiplier or can set their own.
Find the suggested performance multiplier under the blue "i" icon (see below). You can change the Google Trends keywords for the similar title in the same way as for the title you are forecasting.
Once the scale factor has been set, clicking Generate will generate the film forecast.
5. Review Forecast
Once a forecast is generated, the results are visible in the chart below.
The forecast is generated for every location and then added up at the circuit level. You can filter on a cinema level with the drop down menu in the upper right corner.
Weekly Forecasted Admissions and Revenue are visible on the table below (select Data button to change from chart to table view). The Pct. % section displays the contribution of the current forecast upcoming release to the total admissions for that particular week.
You can adjust admits and drop percentage for a certain week (on either circuit or cinema level) in case you would like to. Once you're satisfied with the result you don't need to save your forecast. You can create a snapshot in case you want to track your changes over time.