All Collections
Introduction to Film Forecasting
Introduction to Film Forecasting
Laura Bercan avatar
Written by Laura Bercan
Updated over a week ago

Cinema Intelligence's Film Forecasting Module can quickly forecast admissions based on historical box office performance and real-time trends.

The Film Forecasting module can help estimate upcoming film performance by analyzing performance of similar past movies. Cinema Intelligence enhances these estimates by incorporating real-time signals from automated Google searches - such as those for specific trailers or other keywords.

Forecasting new releases will give extraordinary insight into the upcoming period for each individual theatre in your circuit and can help drive business decisions - such as booking, movie scheduling, staff and labor scheduling, concession stock planning and optimization.

Before you start

To make the best use of this powerful tool, it is important to remember that your input matters.

It all starts with your choice of similar movie titles. The forecast values are based on the performance of the similar movie titles at your theatre locations. There will be other opportunities where your input will be required to fine tune the forecasting such as Google Search Keywords and the Scale Factor.

Before you begin forecasting, we suggest you review the upcoming releases and map the similar titles you would like to use.

Using Forecasting

The video below will walk you through the workflow of the Forecasting module:

  1. Navigating to the Forecasting module

  2. View which films are available for forecasting

  3. Click on the film title that you want to forecast

  4. Select similar films and then click Generate Forecast

  5. Review and fine tune the forecasted values

Rolling Forecast - only for non-Vista integrations

The Rolling Forecast is a method for continuous planning and will help you increase the film life cycle forecast after it was released. The film forecast is automatically adjusted based on the actual performance during the 1st playing week.

How it works:

  • The rolling forecast starts for movies that have been forecasted and are released in the current playing week.

  • The method will continuously recalculate and update forecast values for upcoming weeks based on actual performance of each day in the 1st playing week. Every night the forecast is recalculated based on previous day film performance.

  • The system will compare the forecasted total admissions with actual total admissions for every new released film. For each day in the 1st playing week we calculate the difference between forecast and actual performance. If it is greater than 20%, the forecast will be readjusted.

  • A new scale factor will be calculated for each similar title by comparing the new forecasted total with the previous forecasted total for the whole circuit.

  • Before recalculation, a snapshot will be saved for the previous forecast. This way, you can easily identify the forecast trend and what films have been automatically readjusted.

  • Forecast is adjusted based on the new scale factor.

Forecasting and Rolling Forecast process Overview

Did this answer your question?